While Turkey is caught up in the earthquake disaster of a month ago, as well as domestic crises, especially for the opposition bloc (the Nation Alliance), relations with NATO remain tense, especially with regard to Sweden’s participation.

The last meeting, attended by representatives from Sweden, Finland and Turkey, did not lead to a decision on lifting the blockade, but ended with a tendency for further meetings to take place.

For the Swedes, this is a sign of progress.

Turkey had suspended the trilateral mechanism indefinitely after the far-right Paludan demonstration.

In this respect, the revival of the mechanism seems to offer a glimmer of hope for Sweden.

On the other hand, the electoral atmosphere in Turkey, which has been increasingly felt in the country, hinders the approval of Sweden’s and Finland’s membership in the short term.

This is explained by the Western media with accusations of “uncertainty as to what the purpose of blocking Sweden is”, as well as by President Erdoğan’s domestic political concerns.

Yet NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who visited Sweden and met with Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson before the last meeting in Brussels, reiterated that the accession of the two Nordic countries to the alliance is a priority. The Secretary General also emphasized that the Paludan demonstration should not prevent Sweden from joining the alliance.

This last point may be related to NATO’s discomfort with the narrative that Sweden’s accession is being blocked because it is part of domestic political developments in Turkey.

NATO does not accept its enlargement process being used as a domestic political tool.

Likewise, this process has the potential to radically change NATO’s northern defense not only politically but also militarily.

For NATO, a military strategy that would use Swedish territory, especially in defense of the Baltic states against a possible Russian intervention, is more than a decade in the making.

However, in the Swedish case, this process has developed in foreign policy with the rhetoric of “not being able to please Turkey” or “no matter what we do, Turkey will continue to obstruct us”, and has a complex impact on domestic politics.

The current Swedish government is fragile, dependent on the far-right Sweden Democrats to stay in power.

The Sweden Democrats, in order to make people forget their neo-Nazi past, support joining NATO.

The Social Democrats, the architects of Sweden’s NATO policy, which was shaped under the pressure of the Russo-Ukrainian War, seek to reconcile NATO membership with their traditional policy of “military neutrality”.

The party’s program still contains articles on why Sweden should stay out of NATO.

The current Swedish government is fragile, dependent on the far-right Sweden Democrats to stay in power.

The Sweden Democrats, in order to make people forget their neo-Nazi past, support joining NATO.

The Social Democrats, the architects of Sweden’s NATO policy, which was shaped under the pressure of the Russo-Ukrainian War, seek to reconcile NATO membership with their traditional policy of “military neutrality”.

The party’s program still contains articles on why Sweden should stay out of NATO.

Indeed, while Western analyses position Turkey as a NATO country where Russia’s political and military influence is growing, it is more important than ever to make this distinction, given Hungary’s possible accession approval.

Secondly, this move could pave the way for a rebuilding of relations with the West in the event of an Erdogan victory.

In any case, post-election Turkey will need to rebuild these relations strongly.

This is not an issue to be left on the sidelines in a transitory election atmosphere.

The Turkish version of this analysis was published on masastratejiler.com on March 10, 2023.